Ward-Level Land-Use / Land-Cover Change 2011–2024 in a Peri-Urban Ward of Mysuru (QGIS + Sentinel-2)

This B.Plan thesis measures how land use and land cover changed between 2011 and 2024 in one peri-urban ward on the edge of Mysuru, Karnataka, and what that change means for the city's next master plan. Mysuru's fringe has been growing along its ring road and main radial roads: agricultural land and tank catchments have turned into plotted layouts, gated enclaves and commercial strips, often faster than roads, drains and schools have followed.

The study uses freely available Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 imagery for three time points (around 2011, 2017 and 2024), classified in QGIS with the Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin into built-up, agriculture, vegetation, water bodies and open/barren land. Each classified map is checked with ground-truth points collected on field visits and high-resolution imagery, and its accuracy is reported with a confusion matrix, overall accuracy and the kappa coefficient. Change-detection matrices then show exactly which land moved from which class to which.

Classification results are combined with Census 2011 Primary Census Abstract data for the ward and surrounding villages, Bhuvan thematic layers, and a field survey of roads, drainage and social infrastructure. The thesis ends with planning recommendations for the master-plan revision: land-use zoning corrections, protection of tanks and drainage channels, infrastructure priorities and phasing. Deliverables are a thesis report, a map set and a jury presentation.

Abstract

Peri-urban wards of Indian cities change faster than planning documents can track. Master plans are revised every ten to twenty years, while conversion of farmland into layouts happens every season. This thesis quantifies land-use and land-cover change in a Mysuru fringe ward over thirteen years using satellite imagery and GIS, validates the classification in the field, relates the change to population and infrastructure data, and proposes planning measures for the next master plan.

Introduction

The study ward (selected by the student; a fringe ward along a radial road is recommended) includes older village settlements, new private layouts, a lake or tank with its catchment, agricultural land and a highway commercial strip. The ward is small enough to verify on foot and large enough to show clear change.

Literature review and gap

Land-use change studies of Indian cities using remote sensing are common at the city or district scale, often with Landsat's 30 m resolution. Fewer studies work at ward level, where planning decisions are actually implemented, and fewer still link classified change to planning recommendations such as zoning corrections and infrastructure phasing. Sentinel-2's 10 m bands make ward-level work more reliable than before. This thesis applies that finer data and connects the results to planning action.

Existing vs proposed approach

• Existing: land-use maps in master plans are prepared once per plan period, often from older base maps, and deviations are discovered only when violations are reported.
• Proposed: a repeatable, low-cost method using open imagery and open-source GIS to measure change at ward level, validate it, and feed it into planning decisions.

Feasibility

• Technical: imagery is free from USGS EarthExplorer and the Copernicus programme; QGIS and SCP are open source; a laptop with 8 GB RAM is enough for a ward-size area.
• Data: Census 2011 ward and village tables are published by the Census of India; Bhuvan provides thematic reference layers.
• Time: the full workflow fits within one thesis semester with field visits on weekends.

Peri-urban wards around Mysuru are being converted from agriculture and open land to built-up uses along ring and radial roads. This conversion often happens ahead of planned infrastructure, encroaches on tank beds and storm-water channels, and departs from the proposed land use in the master plan. Planners lack an up-to-date, verified, ward-level picture of how much land has changed, what it changed from, and where, so plan revisions rely on outdated maps and scattered records.

The problem this thesis addresses is: how much and what kind of land-use and land-cover change has occurred in a selected peri-urban ward of Mysuru between 2011 and 2024, how accurately can it be measured with open satellite data and GIS, and what planning measures should the next master plan adopt in response?

In scope

• One peri-urban ward with a 1 km buffer for context.
• Five LULC classes: built-up, agriculture, vegetation, water bodies, open/barren land.
• Three time points (around 2011, 2017, 2024) with accuracy assessment.
• Census 2011 demographic analysis and a field survey of infrastructure.
• Planning recommendations at ward level.

Out of scope

• Future land-use prediction with cellular automata or machine-learning models (listed as future scope).
• Legal status of individual layouts or land conversions.
• Detailed engineering design of infrastructure.
• Very high-resolution commercial imagery.

The thesis follows a quantitative spatial research design with field validation, over about 20 weeks.

Methods: remote sensing and supervised classification, accuracy assessment with confusion matrix and kappa, post-classification change detection, secondary-data analysis of Census tables, field observation and infrastructure survey, and overlay analysis against the master plan.